China Electric Truck Boom Threatens LNG Demand

China’s Electric Truck Surge Challenges LNG in Heavy Transport
China’s rapidly growing electric truck market is beginning to reshape the country’s heavy-duty transportation landscape, posing a threat not only to petroleum demand but also to liquefied natural gas (LNG) usage. Electric trucks are now capturing a significant portion of the market, signaling a potential shift toward zero-emission heavy transport.

Record Sales for Electric Trucks
Data from CVNews, cited by Bloomberg, shows that full-year 2025 sales of battery-powered heavy-duty vehicles tripled from the previous year, exceeding 230,000 units. Last month alone, electric truck sales soared to a record high. The rise in electric trucks comes even as LNG-powered truck sales continue to grow, denting diesel and gasoline demand, which analysts say has already peaked.

Electric Trucks Begin to Threaten LNG Demand
Transportation accounts for roughly 50% of China’s LNG consumption. Yet, with electric trucks approaching 20% of all truck sales, LNG—which has been displacing diesel in the heavy transport sector—now faces a potential decline in demand. Industry observers suggest that as e-trucks gain traction, LNG’s role as a transitional fuel could diminish faster than expected.

Government Support and Industry Trends
China continues to subsidize electric truck purchases, boosting adoption. Programs incentivizing the scrapping of old diesel trucks have further fueled growth, although funding for these programs may be reduced in 2026. Analysts and market researchers, including BloombergNEF (BNEF), note that China appears to prioritize electric trucks over LNG-powered vehicles in its push toward zero-emission heavy transport.

Industry Outlook and Market Impact
Robin Zeng, CEO of Chinese battery giant CATL, forecasts that 50% of China’s truck sales could be electric by 2028. CATL, which controls over a third of the global EV battery market, supplies standardized batteries to more than a dozen Chinese truck manufacturers, powering approximately 30 electric truck models. If Zeng’s projections hold, the shift could disrupt both Chinese and global fuel and automotive markets, accelerating the decline in diesel, gasoline, and LNG demand.

Implications for Global Fuel Markets
China’s broader fuel demand has already started to plateau due to the rapid adoption of electric passenger vehicles and LNG-powered trucks. A surge in electric heavy-duty trucks would accelerate this trend, potentially triggering faster reductions in fuel consumption and reshaping the global energy landscape. Analysts warn that traditional fuel markets may need to adapt quickly as China’s transportation sector embraces electrification at unprecedented speed.