Shell India Unveils 2026 Energy Scenarios Sketch

Shell India released its 2026 Energy Scenarios Sketch titled “India’s Energy Transition in a Security-Focused Age” at the TERI World Sustainable Development Summit in New Delhi. The report presents three pathways called Archipelagos, Surge, and Horizon. These scenarios explore how India could meet its growing energy demand by 2050 while considering climate, technology, and geopolitical factors.

Archipelagos and Surge focus on national self-reliance and economic resilience under current global conditions. Horizon presents a pathway aligned with the Paris Agreement, emphasising climate and environmental security. India’s energy demand has grown almost 40 percent over the past decade and is expected to surpass the United States in the 2040s and China in the 2060s, making India a central player in global energy markets.

Renewable Energy and Natural Gas in Transition

Solar, Wind, and Electric Vehicle Adoption

Renewable energy has expanded rapidly. Solar and wind now account for more than 20 percent of electricity consumption, up from 3 percent in 2015. By 2050, these sources are expected to supply at least 59 percent of electricity across all three scenarios. Electric vehicle adoption is projected to replace 41 percent of road travel fuel in Archipelagos, 53 percent in Surge, and 58 percent in Horizon. This demonstrates a major shift in India’s transport sector.

Role of Transition Fuels

Natural gas and liquefied natural gas are crucial transition fuels in all scenarios. Gas demand is expected to rise by at least 50 percent over the next decade. It is essential for balancing intermittent renewable energy, supporting industrial and residential needs, and powering data centers handling artificial intelligence workloads. Fossil fuel use may peak this decade, but absolute volumes could continue rising in Archipelagos and Surge due to overall growth in energy demand.

Policy Focus and Decarbonisation Priorities

Shell identifies five priority areas for the next decade:

• Accelerate low-carbon electrification across sectors
• Expand electric vehicle infrastructure and incentives
• Improve industrial competitiveness with low-carbon fuels and technologies
• Maintain transition fuels to ensure an orderly shift from traditional biomass
• Develop frameworks for carbon removal to support India’s 2070 net-zero goal

The Energy Scenarios Sketch is not a company forecast but provides guidance for policymakers, investors, and industry leaders. It outlines alternative pathways for India’s energy future while highlighting renewables, natural gas, and electric mobility. The report provides a framework to navigate the challenges and opportunities in India’s energy transition through 2050.